First opportunity
The Mercedes driver has his first opportunity to secure the 2026 Formula 1 World Championship at the United States Grand Prix. But what exactly needs to happen for Kimi Antonelli to be crowned champion in Austin?
Kimi Antonelli is getting closer to his first Formula 1 World Championship. Following the Singapore Grand Prix, the Mercedes driver holds a 102-point lead over his teammate George Russell, with Lewis Hamilton in third place, 111 points behind.
With six Grands Prix remaining in the 2026 season, Antonelli has his first mathematical opportunity to secure the title at the United States Grand Prix in Austin, taking place from 23 to 25 October.
However, winning the race alone will not be enough. The Italian also needs the right results from his championship rivals.
The results Antonelli needs in Austin
There are three conditions that must be met for Antonelli to become World Champion in Austin:
- Kimi Antonelli must win the United States Grand Prix.
- George Russell must finish ninth or lower.
- Lewis Hamilton must finish fifth or lower.
All three conditions need to be fulfilled for Antonelli to secure the title this weekend.
A Grand Prix victory earns 25 points, while second place is worth 18. With five races remaining after Austin, there will be a maximum of 125 points available for each driver. Antonelli therefore needs to leave the United States with a lead that his rivals can no longer overcome.
If Antonelli wins and Russell finishes ninth, the gap between the Mercedes teammates would increase to 125 points. Because Antonelli would have more race victories than Russell, he would win the championship even if they could theoretically finish level on points.
Hamilton is another driver Antonelli needs to keep behind him. If the Ferrari driver finishes fifth or lower, he will no longer be able to catch the championship leader after Austin.
What if Antonelli does not
win in Austin?
If Antonelli finishes second or lower, the championship will remain undecided in Austin, regardless of the other results. Even if Russell scores no points, a second-place finish would not give Antonelli a sufficiently large advantage to secure the title mathematically. That does not mean the championship would be in danger. Antonelli would still head into the remaining rounds with a substantial lead, giving him a strong position to fight for the title in the races that follow.
Can Max Verstappen still win the championship?
Max Verstappen has recently returned to winning ways, taking victories in Malaysia and Singapore. The Red Bull driver is fourth in the standings with 221 points, 119 behind Antonelli. However, an Antonelli victory in Austin would be enough to eliminate Verstappen from the championship fight mathematically. The same would apply to Charles Leclerc and reigning champion Lando Norris. That means the main focus in Austin will be on Antonelli's own performance and the results of Russell and Hamilton.
A chance to make Formula 1 history
Securing the title in Austin would be a historic achievement for Antonelli. At just 20 years old, he could become the youngest World Champion in Formula 1 history, breaking Sebastian Vettel's record, set when he won his first title in 2010 at the age of 23. It would also be an extraordinary achievement in only his second season in Formula 1, marking a major step forward after his rookie campaign.
Will Austin decide the championship?
Antonelli has put himself in an excellent position, but the title is not his yet. He needs a race victory and a little help from the results behind him to celebrate in Texas. If all three conditions are met, Mercedes could celebrate a new World Champion with five Grands Prix still remaining in the season.
If not, Antonelli will have to wait a little longer. Either way, all eyes will be on Austin to see whether the young Italian can turn his impressive season into a historic championship victory.
